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Leading Through Ambiguity
By Kevin Dunne, Mindtools Content Editor and Writer
If you waited until you were cast-iron certain about your future (and had enough money!) before you had children, you’d never have them.
So, instead, those of us that do have them go with what we’ve got. We decide we’re ready to take the big step and resolve to cross all those bridges ahead of us when we get to them.
We are stepping into an ambiguous future, one where we have no way of knowing exactly what's going to happen. So, we resolve to adapt as we go. And at least we know those challenges are coming.
Being able to adapt in this way is a skill all leaders and managers increasingly need as they step and strategize their way through an increasingly VUCA world – that’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous.
Adapt and Be Agile
Even the most well-prepared, deeply consulted-on, data-driven strategy will run into unforeseen circumstances.
All managers and leaders can ever do when that happens – and it will – is to bring their experience, understanding and knowledge to bear and make the best decisions they can, based on the information they have and the situation they face at that moment. And be agile enough to rapidly change course if it turns out to be the wrong call.
No surprise, then, that recent McKinsey research frames adaptability as a meta-skill: one of the foundational, higher-order abilities that enable individuals and organizations to quickly alter course, learn and succeed even in rapidly changing circumstances.
The Known and the Unknown
The need to be ready to adapt is born of the ambiguity present at the heart of so many work and life situations – data, insight and hard-to-separate competing interests pointing in two or even more directions at once.
While uncertainty involves wrestling with the known unknowns, like waiting for a key report or decision, ambiguity asks managers, leaders and organizations to prepare for the things they don’t know they don’t know – the unknown unknowns. Waiting for certainty is not an option; the only certainty about that decision is that momentum will stall.
Adaptability in this scenario, then, is the capacity to evolve strategically and operationally in uncertain conditions.
Leading in the Gray
For leaders and managers, the goal is to develop adaptive mindsets and systems that help your organization to learn and grow, no matter how the landscape shifts, not waiting until a crisis hits before you think about it.
Often referred to as “Leading in the Gray,” the best way for leaders to cultivate and embed organizational adaptability is to model the behaviors they want to see.
Here are the top five behaviors:
1. Making Decisive Moves With Imperfect Information
Sometimes market conditions or geopolitical events dictate that you can't wait for more data before making that big decision. So, make the best decision you can now. As McKinsey point out, "Waiting to decide is a decision in itself."
2. Framing Ambiguity as a Shared Challenge
Talking openly about ambiguity normalizes uncertainty across the organization, instead of pretending clarity exists when it doesn't. It signals trust and invites collective problem solving.
3. Rewarding Learning Over Flawless Execution
Perfectionism kills adaptability because teams become risk-averse precisely when innovation is needed most. Encouraging curiosity and experimentation signals that adaptation is more important than avoiding mistakes.
4. Holding Vision and Flexibility in Balance
Adaptive leaders hold strategy loosely, always ready to pivot as new realities emerge. The key is communicating the "why" consistently while remaining open to different "hows" as circumstances change.
5. Creating Psychological Safety for Innovation
A culture of psychological safety means people can speak up, test new approaches and contribute fresh thinking without fear of repercussions. Leaders and managers who foster this create cultures where teams move fast. And in VUCA environments, that’s invaluable.
Making Adaptability Stick
The second element in building a ready-for-anything organization is embedding adaptability into structures, culture and processes.
This means that as a leaders or manager you should:
- Reduce ambiguity where you can. While ambiguity is inevitable, you can limit its impact with clearer priorities, roles and decision-making rights. Be clear about the need to focus on what matters most and encourage horizon scanning so your teams can see trouble and opportunities coming.
- Operate effectively when ambiguity persists. Frame uncertainty as a space for learning, not a threat. Use “test and learn” approaches (small, low-risk experiments with fast feedback) to help your teams move forward even when desired outcomes aren’t fully defined.
- Shape a culture that welcomes change. This means rewarding curiosity, valuing continuous learning and showing innovation is expected – and supported. By demonstrating that smart risk-taking is valued and that setbacks are part of learning, you send a clear signal: adaptability is how we succeed here.
- Build adaptive capacity into structures and processes. Design these with flexibility in mind. So, promote cross-functional teams and fluid roles, and apply systems thinking to spot rigidities and interdependencies that might slow adaptation.
- Strengthen decision making under uncertainty. According to Deloitte, scenario planning helps with this. It’s a structured process for exploring multiple plausible futures and testing how your strategies might perform in each.
No decision is perfect – and managing ambiguity calls for the ability to overcome the need for absolute perfection and to strike a balance between taking time to think things through and taking action.
What’s Next?
To develop the leadership skills to tackle ambiguity, start with the 101. Our article Managing Ambiguity does what it says on the tin, explaining ambiguity and suggesting strategies to handle it.
For an overview of all the different facets of ambiguity, and the role of agility in dealing with them, check out Managing in a VUCA World.
And for the inside track on adaptive leadership and how it can shape resilient organizations, try Building an Adaptive Organization.
Tip of the Week
Embrace "Silent Check-Ins"
By Simon Bell, Mindtools Content Writer and Editor
Not every check-in with your team needs to be a meeting. Try using short, informal messages – like a quick note on Teams, Slack or email – to ask how things are going or offer support. These “silent check-ins” respect your team’s time while showing that you’re present and engaged.
Silent check-ins keep communication open without adding to meeting fatigue. They also create space for team members to share concerns or wins they might not bring up in a formal setting. As such, they can be a useful way to keep in touch with your quieter team members.
Rotate in occasional shows of gratitude or recognition – “Just wanted to say I noticed your work on the project timeline. Really appreciated it.” Small touches build trust and morale over time.
Efficient communication isn’t always loud. Sometimes, the quiet touch makes the strongest impact.
For another take on quiet leadership, see our article You Don’t Need to be Loud to Lead.
Pain Points Podcast
It's never nice to be the bearer of bad news. But sometimes it's an inescapable part of your job. So what's the right way to give difficult messages to individuals, teams, even entire organizations?
On Pain Points this week, Kickstarter's chief product officer Mahesh Guruswamy shares practical advice about saying things that people don't want to hear – from his new book, "How to Deliver Bad News and Get Away With It!"
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Video of the Week
The "Who Cares Wins" Approach to Leadership With Doug Strycharczyk
In this expert video, Doug Strycharczyk shares his concept of mental toughness – and outlines what it takes for a leader to perform their best.
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News Roundup
This Week's Global Workplace Insights
Rethinking Job Hopping
Once a fast-track to advancement, job hopping is losing its edge. Recent data shows that pay bumps for switchers now barely outpace those who stay – 4.8 percent vs. 4.6 percent. As a result, many employees are staying put, not out of loyalty, but due to limited options – creating a real challenge for HR: disengaged, stagnant workers.
According to a report by learning and development provider Litmos, 60 percent of employees value professional development, yet many find training irrelevant to their goals.
So how do you manage that? The expert advice is to look for signs of learning agility – curiosity and informal upskilling – before deciding whether to invest further in an individual. And their learning needs to be meaningful, aligning with career paths and workplace culture: real behavior change far outweighs participation stats.
However, some employees are likely too sunk in chronic negativity to turn around. And they may need to be encouraged to hop into a different role.
For more on employee retention, see our article Drivers Behind Joining, Staying and Leaving.
Crossing the Digital Divide
Major U.K. organizations including Deloitte, VodafoneThree, and the Good Things Foundation have partnered with the government to launch the “IT Reuse for Good” charter, reports government website GOV.UK. It’s a nationwide effort to bridge the digital divide by donating refurbished tech to people in need.
1.5 million people in the U.K. lack access to basic digital devices. The initiative encourages companies to securely donate used IT equipment via selected charity partners. The move not only promotes digital inclusion but also addresses the U.K.’s growing e-waste problem.
Supporters highlight how access to technology can transform lives – enabling job searches, training and essential online services. Signatories must donate their first device within six months and commit to regular reporting.
The charter aims to build a more inclusive, sustainable future by embedding tech reuse into business practices. Tech access is no longer optional – it's a basic requirement for opportunity.
See you next week for more member-exclusive content and insight from the Mindtools team!